A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
